Ten years ago, Spain's economy was seen to be outperforming many other EU economies. The then conservative Prime Minister Jose-Maria Aznar was considered in some quarters to have led several key reforms. With Aznar set to depart the scene at the 2004 General Election, his conservative Popular Party looked set to be on course for a third successive election victory, such was the positive outlook for the Spanish economy. Mariano Rajoy (his successor) in fact lost that election.
Ten years on, Spain has another conservative government led by Rajoy, following two successive terms of socialist government. As part of a eurozone trying to recover from the financial crisis of 2008, the Spanish economic outlook is not currently looking so rosy. Not only does Spain have high unemployment, we now hear talk about autonomous regions with separatist tendencies looking to break away. We also now hear about the odd royal scandal. There is the chink of light provided by the national football team, which is considered by some to be one of world football's greatest of all time. What could all this mean Spain will look like in a decade's time?
I would not be surprised if Spain became a republic, and one with much reduced influence on the back of successful breakaways in both Catalonia and the Basque Country. For all the official statements coming out of Madrid indicating that an independence referendum in Catalonia later this year is illegal, the reality is that Madrid will have no choice at some point in accepting that the people in Catalonia do in fact have the right to self-determination.
If the people of Catalonia don't have the right to self-determination, then why on earth has Catalonia President Artur Mas's Democratic Convergence of Catalonia not been banned, along with other pro-independence parties? As I indicated in my post on January 1 2014 entitled "Spain blocking Catalan Independence Vote could be a test of the EU's democratic values," prospective EU member states must be seen to be democratic as stipulated by the Treaty of European Union, just like existing EU Member States! Indeed Mr Mas agreed in a BBC TV interview last month that Spain and the EU itself would have a constitutional crisis in the event of Madrid rejecting a referendum in support of Catalonian independence.
Comparisons are often made between Catalonia and Scotland. There are though a few differences between Scotland and Catalonia. The main one is that the UK Government has acknowledged the Scottish Government's right to hold an independence referendum. Madrid needs to correct this mistake quickly, and follow the UK example. After all, support for Scottish independence has been generally perceived to be around the 30% mark for decades, whereas current support for Catalan independence of around the 50% mark has only really come about due to the euro financial crisis of recent years.
Who knows what the Catalan people would decide after a considered process with all the arguments for and against. However, for any Nation State to deprive a constituent part of the right to self-determination as the government of Mariano Rajoy appears to be doing, it can only prove to be counterproductive in the long term as the deprivation of democracy will merely strengthen the Catalan resolve.
A Spanish Republic is possible but monarchies can also mean stability due to the Monarch's political neutrality, and the lack of political power which would be concentrated towards one political office. But in the twenty first century, monarchies must now embark on a journey to being a mere figurehead. Lavish and ill-judged holidays as King Juan Carlos has embarked upon in recent years, along with accusations of corruption (as faced by Princess Cristina) will not go down well in any modern western society, irrespective of the era of austerity. The Spanish Monarchy has possibly entered a period in which it has no room for further error.
Madrid's current approach to the Catalan situation is not the only example of Spain's A La Carte approach to democracy. The British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar can provide more than the occasional episode of tension between London and Madrid. The consistent position from London has been that it is for the people of Gibraltar to decide on Gibraltar's future, much to Madrid's displeasure.
That is not to say there aren't holes in British arguments when it comes to the self-determination of British Overseas Territories. On the one hand, Britain continues to argue it's right to administer the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic Ocean, on the basis of the Falkland Islanders' right to self-determination. Yet, there is other British Territory in the South Atlantic such as South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, where there is actually no native population. Both of these territories are claimed by Argentina as part of it's own national territory.
Whilst Madrid does from time to time have genuine cause for grievance in cases of cigarette smuggling for instance, Spain's claim on Gibraltar is no more rightful than Morocco's claim on the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, which are located on Morocco's North African Coast. Spanish politicians have stated that the situation of Ceuta and Melilla is different to that of Gibraltar on the basis of Gibraltar being a British Overseas Territory, as opposed to being a constituent part of the United Kingdom. Such an argument is merely colonial waffle.
HOWEVER THE NEXT DECADE OR SO DEFINES SPAIN, THIS A LA CARTE APPROACH TO THE PRECIOUS COMMODITY THAT IS DEMOCRACY WILL NEED TO CHANGE!
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